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Iowa Republicans were a clear reflection of that on Monday night, delivering the former president an emphatic victory. As clear-cut as his win was, though, Iowa has not historically played the role of kingmaker in the Republican nominating process. He chose to appear at court hearings as a defendant in his legal cases in New York and Washington rather than speak to Iowa voters in the final days before the voting. With its more moderate, educated electorate, New Hampshire presents Trump’s rivals with possibly their best opportunity to slow his march. Trump's strength among Republican voters is beyond dispute, but the road is long and could be bumpy.

Persons: — Donald, Joe Biden, kingmaker, Trump, He’s, didn’t, Biden, Nikki Haley, Bush, John McCain, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, Haley, “, Iowans, caucusgoers, Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, RAMASWAMY, Vivek Ramaswamy’s quixotic, Ramaswamy, Eminem, Chris Christie Organizations: WASHINGTON, Republican Party, White House, Iowa Republicans, AP VoteCast, Former South Carolina Gov, Colorado, Democratic, U.S, Supreme, Trump, Republican, Florida Gov, MAGA, White, Trump Trump, Republican White House Locations: Iowa, New York, Washington, New Hampshire, Hampshire, South Carolina, U.S, Florida, New Jersey, America

☆ Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever. A Haley win in the first primary race in the nation would indicate that Trump is not invincible. He did more than 5 points better than where his final Iowa poll had him. (His 28-point margin over Bradley was the same as the final poll found, as both Bradley and Gore won some undecided voters.)

Persons: Donald Trump, Ann Selzer, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, –, They’re, Haley, Chris Christie –, George W, Bush, didn’t, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Patrick Buchanan, Bob Dole, Buchanan, McCain, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart, Haley isn’t, DeSantis, Al Gore, Gore, Bill Bradley, Bradley, Trump . Gore, Dole Organizations: CNN, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Iowa GOP, Granite State, New, New Jersey Gov, University of New, Dole, Democratic, Republican, Trump . Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, University of New Hampshire, Hampshire, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina, Florida

☆ Analysis: Nikki Haley has a plausible path to the Republican nomination
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

No one behind in the national polls by as much as Haley at this point in the primary calendar has ever ended up winning the nomination. A late October Des Moines Register poll had Trump at 43% to Haley and DeSantis each at 16% in Iowa. They both went on to win Iowa. Haley, however, doesn’t need to win Iowa to secure the GOP nomination. Hart’s overperformance in Iowa was a big reason he went to win the New Hampshire primary in 1984.

Persons: CNN — We’ve, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley, She’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, DeSantis, It’s, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Dick Gephardt, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart’s, Republican Pat Buchanan, Hart, it’s, Chris Christie, Christie, Mondale, Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, George McGovern –, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, Republican, South, Trump, Florida Gov, Des Moines Register, Iowa, GOP, Hawkeye State, Granite State, New, University of New, Winthrop University Locations: South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, That’s, Republican George H.W ., Hampshire, Granite, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Haley’s

☆ How Haley could eclipse DeSantis to become the Trump alternative
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

But many Republican strategists believe that DeSantis’ struggles to connect with voters, and his choice to run at Trump solely from the right, have opened a lane for Haley to eclipse the Florida governor. An array of recent polls, both nationally and in the battleground states, signal that DeSantis and Haley have separated themselves from the rest of the candidates chasing Trump. “Absolutely, Nikki Haley has more upside than DeSantis if they are both viable after the first two,” argued Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina GOP. DeSantis, Ayres argued, has “has tried to appeal to some of the ‘always Trump’ voters, but the ‘always Trump’ voters are always Trump for a reason. Nikki Haley seems to have figured out the job is to consolidate the ‘maybe Trump’ voters who supported Trump twice but now … want a different style and different temperament.”Republicans sympathetic to DeSantis argue that it is Haley who has boxed herself in.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Trump, “ You’ve, ”, Tom Rath, Donald Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Republican pollster Whit Ayres, Alice Stewart, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Scott, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Kim Reynolds, Huckabee, Santorum, Cruz, John McCain, Mitt Romney, ’, Ayres, Rath, George W, Bush, “, ” Dante Scala –, –, Scala, GOPers, ” Haley, McCain, Linus, ‘, ’ ”, he’s, Newt Gingrich, Alex Stroman, DeSantis “, ” Ayres, Ayres ’ “, tellingly, MAGA —, dethroning, ” Scala, Mike Murphy, who’s, Joe Biden, ” Murphy, There’s, Sen, Gary Hart parlayed, Hart, Walter Mondale, Chris Sununu, DeSantis ’, Yogi Berra, ” Rath Organizations: CNN, GOP, Florida Gov, South Carolina Gov, ”, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Washington Post, New, New Jersey Gov, South, Huckabee, New Hampshire GOP, University of New, Romney, South Carolina GOP, “, dethroning Trump, Democratic Locations: Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, New Jersey, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, After New Hampshire, Gaza, DeSantis, Haley, Iowa , New Hampshire

☆ Analysis: Why Chris Christie's presidential bid remains a long shot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Republican Chris Christie is hoping the second time’s the charm when it comes to White House runs. He’s not alone among the major Republican contenders polling south of 5% on average – seven others also fit the description. It’s not unheard of for candidates polling below 5% (or even at 1%) at this point in the cycle to win their party’s nomination. lies with the two candidates polling above 5%: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Upon officially declaring his bid, he jumped into the double digits in the Republican horserace and saw his unfavorable ratings decline.

Persons: Chris Christie, Let’s, Christie, He’s, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Trump, Carter, Clinton, wasn’t, George McGovern, Maine Sen, Ed Muskie, McGovern, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Massachusetts Sen, Ted Kennedy, Democrat Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Mondale, We’ve, I’m Organizations: CNN, White House, New, GOP, CBS, Florida Gov, The South, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Democrat, Trump, Republican Locations: New Jersey, The, The South Dakota, Maine, Iowa, New, Colorado

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